Since August, the market trends of five energy metals - nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminum, and lithium - which are key raw materials for lithium batteries have shown significant differentiation. The general impact of macroeconomic signals is weakening, replaced by independent market trends dominated by industrial policies of various countries, regional trade frictions, and supply-demand imbalances in specific varieties.

Among them, the market fluctuations of copper and lithium are particularly severe, highlighting the complexity of the current market.

Nickel and Cobalt: Supply Side Intervention Dominates Prices

The price dynamics of nickel and cobalt are more directly influenced by national policies rather than broad market forces.

The current core contradiction in the nickel market is structural oversupply, which is rooted in the continuous expansion of production capacity in Indonesia. Institutions predict that the global nickel market's oversupply will expand from 179000 tons in 2024 to 198000 tons in 2025.

This expectation continues to put pressure on prices, with three-month nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hovering around $15000 per metric ton between July and August of this year.

As of August 8th, nickel prices have fallen by 6.6% year-on-year, continuing the bear market pattern since the end of 2022. Although the rainy season in Indonesia and some smelters undergoing loss making maintenance may cause intermittent supply tightening, it has not changed the overall reality of abundant supply.

On the demand side, the increase in market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of new energy vehicles has weakened the demand for nickel in ternary batteries.

It is worth noting that the market is beginning to differentiate between the Indonesian led secondary nickel used for stainless steel production and the high-purity battery grade primary nickel required by Western electric vehicle manufacturers under ESG standards. This may make it increasingly difficult for LME prices to fully reflect the true supply and demand situation of battery grade nickel in the future.

The logic of the cobalt market is completely opposite. Due to the export policies and transportation issues of raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products entering China remains tight. This directly increases the cost of raw materials and provides strong support for cobalt prices.

As of now, the price of cobalt intermediate has risen to around $13 per pound. However, the high prices have also suppressed downstream demand. Domestic cobalt salt factories have a strong willingness to raise prices under cost pressure, but downstream procurement tends to maintain a cautious strategy of on-demand procurement, resulting in a stalemate in the market where both supply and demand are weak.

Data shows that in the first seven months of 2025, domestic cobalt salt production decreased by about 8% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to decline in August.

Copper and Aluminum: Reshaping Trade Flow and Inventory Changes

The copper and aluminum markets are defined by regional trade policies and inventory imbalances, particularly the severe turbulence caused by US tariff measures.

The copper market has just experienced a huge shock caused by the reversal of tariff expectations. Previously, the market expected that the United States would impose high tariffs on all copper imports, leading to a large influx of spot goods into the United States. The premium of copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) relative to LME once exceeded 30%.

However, the policy that was finally implemented at the end of July excluded key products such as refined copper, causing market expectations to fall short. COMEX copper prices plummeted in response, setting a record for the largest single day drop in history, and the price difference with LME quickly narrowed.

The subsequent impact of this event is gradually becoming apparent. As of early August, COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to 260000 tons. The focus of market attention is whether this high inventory will flow back to the global market in the future, especially for LME warehouses with current inventory of only about 150000 tons.

If a large amount of reflux occurs, LME inventory may face pressure to return to the 300000 ton level, thereby suppressing the international copper price center. At present, as the tariff logic recedes, the weakening of the US dollar and macroeconomic expectations have become the main factors affecting copper prices again.

The aluminum market is also deeply affected by the 50% import tariff imposed by the United States. Large producers such as Alcoa and Rio Tinto are bearing huge costs for this, with Rio Tinto paying up to $321 million in tariffs in the first half of this year alone.

To avoid tariffs, the global aluminum trade flow has been forced to reshape. For example, aluminum ingots originally planned to be shipped from Canada to the United States are now being heavily transported to Europe and Asia, which not only increases logistics costs but also disrupts existing supply chains.

In China, although the supply side has been restricted for a long time due to energy-saving and carbon reduction policies, high profits are stimulating the gradual resumption of electrolytic aluminum production. The demand side is facing pressure, as the "rush to install photovoltaics" recedes and household appliance production declines, indicating a weakening of downstream demand for aluminum.

Lithium: Supply uncertainty ignites market sentiment

Compared to other metals, the lithium market has become the focus of market sentiment this week, with prices showing the widest range of oscillations.

The core driving factor is the significant uncertainty in the supply of lithium mines in Jiangxi, China. According to market news, the mining rights of several leading lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi are about to expire, and the renewal process is complex. The market is beginning to believe that the probability of mining shutdowns is increasing.

According to the notice, the relevant mines need to submit a reserve verification report before September 30th, and the subsequent approval process may continue until the fourth quarter. If these mines fail to obtain new mining certificates in a timely manner, it may affect the supply of 7000 to 8000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month.

This potential supply contraction expectation, coupled with downstream demand for stocking up during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", has jointly ignited the futures market. The main 2509 contract for lithium carbonate futures rose as much as 11% this week, with a single day increase of 7.82% on Friday alone, closing at 76640 yuan per ton.

Meanwhile, Albemarle's recent lithium concentrate auction sold at a significantly higher price than the current market price, providing additional cost support for the market. The drastic fluctuations in lithium prices fully demonstrate that at this point, the market is extremely sensitive to any potential supply disruptions.