On August 18th, the recent month contract 2509 for lithium carbonate futures hit a high of 90000 yuan/ton. As of the close of domestic futures, the lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 89300 yuan/ton, up 4.86%.

The current upward trend is mainly driven by the news of the suspension of production in the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times. Over the past week, the market's bullish sentiment has continued to ferment, with lithium carbonate 2509 contract prices rising continuously, from 81000 yuan/ton to now reaching the threshold of 90000 yuan/ton.

Analysis suggests that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate strongly. The disturbance on the supply side has not been fully addressed, and apart from the already implemented reduction, the market is concerned that other projects in Qinghai and Jiangxi are also facing the risk of production cuts and shutdowns. The main tone of the demand side in the third quarter is still the off-season, driven by energy storage demand, and the production schedule of battery cells and materials is increasing month by month.

The price increase caused by raw materials is being transmitted through the industrial chain layer by layer.

With the arrival of the peak season for energy storage on the demand side, the demand for high-density lithium iron phosphate materials from high-capacity energy storage batteries has surged, and it is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate materials will continue to increase.

Data shows that from August 11th to August 17th, the average price of power type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33250 yuan/ton to 35350 yuan/ton, and the average price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate increased from 30900 yuan/ton to 32900 yuan/ton, with weekly increases of 2100 yuan/ton and 2000 yuan/ton, respectively, and a comprehensive increase of about 2540 yuan/ton.   

The significant increase in lithium salt prices due to the rise in the market has also led to a significant increase in ternary costs. As of August 15th, according to cost estimates, the cost of 5 series ternary cathode materials is approximately 123000 yuan/ton, and the cost of 8 series ternary cathode materials is approximately 138000 yuan/ton.

However, due to weak downstream demand, the overall increase in prices of ternary materials is not significant.

The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which remains silent, has also experienced a small surge in price. On August 15th, the average price of domestically produced lithium hexafluorophosphate was reported to be about 55000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 10% compared to the end of July. Overall, although material costs are under pressure and rising, the industry maintains a cautious view of the future market and maintains stable supply and demand in multiple dimensions.

Despite the recent strong boost in lithium carbonate futures prices, the synchronous increase in raw and intermediate material prices is still difficult to reverse the profitability of material companies.

In the short term, the profitability of midstream enterprises is under pressure, especially those with weak cost transfer ability, low inventory, or no hedging, whose gross profit margin may significantly decline.

Enterprises with inventory advantages or price locking mechanisms can buffer short-term shocks; Enterprises that cooperate closely with resource providers and have bargaining power are relatively stable.

German Nanotechnology recently revealed that its subsidiary, Mali Company, is currently working intensively to obtain mining rights. If the Mali company's application for mining rights goes smoothly, it is expected to further improve its layout in lithium mineral resources, reduce raw material costs, and enhance its voice in the fierce market competition.

In recent years, Fulin Precision has actively expanded strategic cooperation in upstream lithium sources through the acquisition of equity in Hengxinrong Lithium Industry, accelerated the research and development of raw materials and production line construction, and laid out the establishment of a diversified lithium carbonate supply system to cope with market fluctuations and ensure production stability.

In the first quarter of this year, Fulin Precision delivered a report card that met market expectations. In Q1 of 2015, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211.9%, and the gross profit margin reached 10.1%. Starting from the second half of the year, Fulin Precision's self supply of lithium dihydrogen phosphate and ferrous sulfate can achieve cost reduction, and it is expected that the net profit per ton will recover to 2000 yuan/ton in 25 years.

In the medium to long term, after this emotional driven surge, lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise and fall.

On August 8th, with the news of production stoppage fermenting in the market, the net short position decreased from the previous day's high of 200000 lots to 83149 lots. Subsequently, the market further adjusted its expectations. On August 13th, short positions in lithium carbonate returned to high levels, and the market's bearish power on the price trend of lithium carbonate became stronger.

The market's expectations for the future have changed due to the overall surplus supply in the mining sector, which has created a "ceiling" for the rise in lithium carbonate prices.

As of August 15th, the spot port and warehouse inventory of lithium ore from 26 sample lithium ore traders was 278000 tons, an increase of 35000 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, the available inventory was 117000 tons, an increase of 18000 tons compared to the previous month. Australian mines and South American salt lakes continue to increase production, while African lithium mines are gradually entering capacity release, and the supply elasticity of imported lithium mines remains.

Domestic lithium ore inventory also increased month on month, reaching 243000 tons in early August.

After Ningde Times lithium mine ceased production, there was no significant fluctuation in lithium carbonate inventory, which remained in a "weak balance" state. Last week, the ring ratio decreased by 0.11%, and the overall inventory level remained at a high level of 142000 tons.

But the market is also concerned that the expected lithium ore arrivals in August are expected to decrease month on month, and lithium ore inventories will continue to decline in September.

On August 14th, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a historic high, and the operating rate of lithium carbonate in salt lakes rebounded. The production of lithium extracted from lithium mica decreased, and the overall lithium mine production in August was slightly revised downward.

This will affect the supply of OEM raw materials, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate will be difficult to sustainably increase.

Last week, the operating rate of domestic lithium salt factories increased by 1.55% on a weekly basis, and the production of lithium carbonate increased by 2.27% on a weekly basis. Overall, the market expects a supply-demand gap of -222 tons for lithium carbonate in August.