According to recent data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export value of lithium-ion batteries in China reached 34.102 billion US dollars (approximately 245 billion yuan) in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, setting a new historical high for the same period.

From the perspective of export destinations, the top five markets from January to June this year were Germany, the United States, Vietnam, the Netherlands, and South Korea, which showed significant adjustments compared to the same period last year: Vietnam's ranking rose one place, South Korea fell two places, the Netherlands rose from sixth to third place, and Japan, which ranked fifth in the same period last year, fell out of the top five.

The biggest change is undoubtedly that Germany has replaced the United States as the largest export destination for Chinese lithium batteries.

Previously, the United States had been the largest market for China's lithium battery exports for five consecutive years (2020-2024). However, since the beginning of this year, the United States has frequently introduced relevant laws and tariff policies, significantly increasing the resistance for Chinese lithium batteries to enter the US market.

From the perspective of monthly performance, China's exports of lithium batteries to the United States ranked first in January alone, while Germany jumped to the top position in February and maintained it for five consecutive months, with the United States dropping to second place.

Affected by the high tariffs on lithium batteries imposed by the United States on China, China's exports to the United States plummeted to $646 million in May, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7% and a month on month decrease of 43%.

This fluctuation is directly related to the frequent adjustments of US tariff policies: on April 2nd, the US announced the imposition of so-called "equivalent tariffs" on Chinese goods imported to the US, which were raised several times in the days after taking effect on April 9th. The highest tax rate on lithium batteries to China reached 145% that month;

It was not until the release of the Joint Statement of the China US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks on May 12th that both sides significantly reduced tariffs. The United States suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days, and China also took corresponding measures, which enabled the resumption of lithium battery exports to the United States. In June, the export value rebounded to 1.086 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 68.1%.

But in early July, the "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the United States once again increased restrictions: not only did it reduce domestic subsidies for new energy, but it also upgraded the "foreign entities of concern" rule in the "Inflation Reduction Act", and most Chinese lithium battery companies were included in the restricted scope. The difficulty of entering the US market in the future will further increase.

In addition, the development of the domestic lithium battery industry in the United States has also reduced its import demand. In recent years, the United States has increased industrial investment, attracting companies such as Tesla to build large-scale super factories, gradually releasing local production capacity, and reducing dependence on imported lithium batteries, further adding obstacles to China's exports.

On the other hand, Germany has a clear driving force for demand growth. On the one hand, the mass production of major models such as the Volkswagen ID.7 and BMW Neue Klasse has led to a shortage of domestic power battery production capacity in Germany, forcing it to rely on the Chinese supply chain. Companies such as CATL and EVE Energy have deeply embedded themselves through "targeted bundling" agreements;

On the other hand, the layout of energy storage in Germany is accelerating, and the increasing proportion of renewable energy is driving the demand for electricity storage. The government encourages enterprises and households to install energy storage systems, further driving the demand for lithium batteries.

At the same time, Germany's core position as the "locomotive" of the European economy and its well-developed new energy infrastructure have made it an important hub for China's lithium batteries to enter Europe: a developed transportation network facilitates rapid distribution to other European countries, while mature charging piles, battery swapping stations, and other facilities provide support for the popularization of electric vehicles, indirectly promoting demand for lithium batteries.

It is worth mentioning that while demand in the European market is growing, adjustments to relevant EU laws have also provided a buffer for Chinese lithium battery companies to expand their business in Europe.

Previously, two key requirements in the EU Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 on batteries and waste batteries had put pressure on Chinese lithium battery companies: first, due diligence on the battery supply chain, which was originally planned to be implemented in August this year, and second, submission of the company's carbon footprint report, which was originally planned to be implemented in February this year.

However, due to factors such as global raw material supply chain adjustments and insufficient third-party investigation agencies, the former is planned to be postponed until August 18, 2027, while the latter is also postponed due to the lack of detailed rules. This allows Chinese companies to temporarily cope with compliance pressures and more confidently seize opportunities in the European market, but long-term risks still exist.