In July 2025, the "dual phenomenon" of slowing domestic growth and strong export expansion in China's new energy vehicle market is deeply transmitting upwards, reshaping the competitive logic and growth path of the power battery industry.

For battery companies, the stock game in the domestic market and the incremental opportunities in overseas markets are becoming two battlefields that must be addressed simultaneously.

Domestic car market cooling down

The most direct pressure comes from the overall cooling of the domestic market. In July, the production of new energy passenger vehicles was about 1.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%, but a month on month decrease of 3%; The retail sales volume in the market is about 990000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a significant decrease of 11% compared to the previous period. As a result, the overall inventory of new energy vehicles decreased by about 60000 units.

A key signal is that since breaking through 50% in the past year, the monthly penetration rate of new energy retail in China has been hovering between 50% and 54%, and has yet to break through the 55% mark.

More noteworthy than the overall decline is the structural transformation of the market. In July, the pure electric retail market grew by about 25% year-on-year and remained strong. However, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the range extender saw a significant drop of 11% year-on-year.

This trade-off has directly reshaped the internal structure of new energy car companies, with their sales proportion of pure electric and extended range vehicles completely reversing from 43% to 57% last year to 64% to 36% this year.

Furthermore, the rise and fall of terminal brands is reshaping the customer base of battery factories. In July, the retail share of self owned brand new energy vehicles remained stable at 70%, with a penetration rate of 75% for new energy vehicles; The penetration rate of luxury cars is 30%, while mainstream joint venture brands only have 7%. Among them, the share of "new forces" driven by Xiaopeng, Zero Run, Xiaomi, etc. increased to 21%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points.

In contrast, Tesla's market share has dropped to 4% (a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 points), and the market share of mainstream joint venture brands has dropped to less than 4% (a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 points). The depth of binding between battery manufacturers and different car companies directly determines their current order trends, such as LG falling out of the TOP10 list of power battery installations in July.

At the same time, the price war is actually continuing and precisely transmitting cost pressure to the battery end. In July, the average price reduction for new energy vehicles reached 17000 yuan, with a reduction of 11.1%, which has eased but remains at a medium to high level.

In the fiercely competitive plug-in hybrid field, the average price of discounted models is about 210000 yuan, but the price reduction is as high as 33000 yuan, with a reduction of 14%, which is higher than that of pure electric vehicles in the same period; At the same time, the promotion coefficient increased by more than 4 percentage points year-on-year. The promotional efforts for extended range vehicles have also increased by over 3 percentage points year-on-year.

This is reflected in the data: in July, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81% of the installed capacity of domestic power batteries, with a year-on-year increase of 49% in installed capacity; However, the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased by 4% year-on-year, putting significant pressure on domestic market demand.

At the same time, the concentration of the domestic power battery market continues to decline, with the market share of the top 2 companies from January to July decreasing by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year. Car companies are actively seeking more diverse and cost-effective battery suppliers to control costs. The rapid growth of second tier manufacturers such as Guoxuan High Tech (with a growth rate of over 100% in July) and Jiyao Tongtong (with the highest growth rate among the TOP10) is a reflection of this trend.

Globalization and high-end development are advancing together, becoming a new growth pole

As the domestic market experiences internal competition, export business has become a crucial growth engine for the entire industry chain. This growth is composed of two levels: one is the "indirect export" of battery products installed in Chinese vehicles, and the other is the direct export of battery products.

In July, the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% and a month on month increase of 8%, accounting for 45% of the total export of passenger vehicles, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Among them, pure electric vehicles account for 65% of new energy exports, while A00+A0 level small pure electric vehicles, which are the core focus, have surged from 26% last year to 43% in pure electric exports, directly driving overseas demand for cost-effective lithium iron phosphate batteries.

At the same time, the export of plug-in hybrid models has surged more than twice year-on-year, bringing new growth to battery manufacturers.

At the enterprise level, BYD exported 80000 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. Its performance in the European market is particularly outstanding, with sales increasing by 4.7 times year-on-year and market share increasing by over 1 percentage point. The strong momentum of this vehicle going global resonates perfectly with its battery business.

In July, BYD's battery exports, which are mainly focused on power, increased by nearly 97% year-on-year, far exceeding its domestic loading business, which saw a slight increase of 10%. This shows that the focus of its "car+battery" strategy is shifting towards the global market and demonstrating the strategic effect of coordinated overseas expansion.

Overall, in July, domestic sales of power batteries increased by about 46%, while exports increased by over 48%, achieving a reversal of domestic sales.

Structurally, the export volume of ternary power batteries in China is 8.4 GWh, accounting for about 57% of the total export volume, a year-on-year increase of about 33%; The export volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 6.2 GWh, accounting for about 42%, with a year-on-year growth rate of as high as 76%. This indicates that although the current high-end overseas market still prefers ternary batteries, the global acceptance of lithium iron phosphate batteries is rapidly increasing.

Ruipu Lanjun, Honeycomb Energy and other companies are also making great strides in overseas markets. From January to July, the exports of power and energy storage batteries for both achieved a year-on-year doubling growth of 206% and 170%, respectively.

Ruipu Lanjun's export growth rate has exceeded 100% for two consecutive months; Honeycomb Energy, with its layout in ternary batteries, has successfully supplied international car companies such as VinFast in Vietnam and Stellantis in Europe, achieving a counter trend growth in scale and share.

It is worth noting that although the mid to low end market is engaged in a price war, the high-end market above 250000 yuan is becoming a new battlefield. Including Ideal, Audi, Wenjie, Xiaomi, etc., they have frequently released mid to high end new cars worth over 250000 yuan since June and July.

According to other data, models represented by Huawei HarmonyOS have surpassed BBA (below 340000 yuan) in terms of sales volume and average transaction price (about 390000 yuan). This indicates that the market's demand for high-performance batteries with high specific energy and long battery life remains strong.

The global production of ternary materials reached a historic high in July, which also confirms this trend. For Chinese battery companies, this means that they cannot relax their research and development investment in high-performance battery technology.

Looking ahead to the future, it is worth noting that policy signals are shifting as car consumption subsidies transition from direct subsidies to loan interest subsidies. The core of anti involution will gradually shift from simple commodity consumption to service consumption areas including battery testing, post repair market, and battery replacement.

For car companies, when some hybrid models begin to shrink in the domestic market, how to continue expanding their substitution advantage for the fuel vehicle market, rather than engaging in stock competition with pure electric vehicles, will be a question that must be answered.